FX.co ★ TTF Prices Fall as Inventories Hit 50%

European natural gas futures have decreased to €36 per megawatt-hour, following the achievement of over 50% gas inventory capacity, a significant benchmark during the refill season. After concluding the 2024–2025 winter with only 33.5% storage—markedly lower than the 55% levels in previous years—Europe is navigating a difficult journey to replenish reserves by November. With the substantial reduction in Russian pipeline gas flows due to the termination of the Ukraine transit agreement, Europe is now significantly dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG). The continent's efforts have been advantaged by weakened Asian demand, particularly from China, where manufacturing is slowing amidst escalating trade tensions with the United States. Additionally, seasonal factors such as the decreased energy consumption during Asia’s monsoon season have made more LNG cargoes available to Europe. Nevertheless, scheduled maintenance activities in Norway have constrained some production. Moving forward, a decrease in European gas demand is anticipated due to warmer weather conditions and an increase in wind power, which are expected to lower heating and electricity requirements.