FX.co ★ Oil Flat on Higher US Stockpiles

WTI crude oil futures experienced a slight downward trend, hovering near $65 per barrel on Wednesday. This slight decline followed gains made in the previous session, as recent industry data disclosed an unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles. According to the American Petroleum Institute, there was a 0.68 million-barrel increase last week, marking a departure from a four-week series of declines and counter to predictions of a 2.26 million-barrel decrease. Investors are proceeding with caution as they await the OPEC+ decision on output, with the group expected to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August. This adjustment will lead to a total increase of 1.78 million barrels per day in 2025, representing over 1.5% of global demand. This strategy is perceived as a disciplinary measure for overproducing countries and an effort by Saudi Arabia to reclaim market share from US shale producers and others. At the same time, reduced geopolitical tensions—evidenced by the sustained Israel-Iran ceasefire—have decreased the risk premium on oil. Nonetheless, uncertainty surrounding possible new US tariffs post the July 9 deadline continues to obscure the global economic outlook and exert downward pressure on prices.