FX.co ★ Kazakhstan Keeps Base Rate at 16.5%

During its meeting on July 11, 2025, the National Bank of Kazakhstan opted to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 16.5%, demonstrating a firm monetary policy to combat ongoing inflationary pressures. In June, annual inflation rose to 11.8%, fueled by increasing costs in services, food, and imports, although there was a slight dip in monthly inflation to 0.8%. Policymakers attributed persistent inflation risks to factors such as tariff reforms, fiscal expansion, rapid growth in consumer lending, and elevated inflation expectations. Economic activity remains robust, with GDP expanding by 6% in the first five months of 2025, largely due to the transport, construction, and trade sectors. The central bank reiterated that its tight monetary policy, coupled with strategic government actions, is aimed at steering inflation towards the target of 5%. Assuming the absence of external disturbances, the rate may hold steady through the end of the year, although potential rate hikes will be on the table if inflationary pressures escalate. The next policy meeting is scheduled for August 29, 2025.