FX.co ★ Oil Climbs Amid Market, Tariff, Sanction Concerns

WTI crude oil futures experienced a rise of 2.8%, closing at $68.40 per barrel on Friday. This increase follows a 2.5% decline from the previous day, contributing to a modest 0.6% gain for the week. Traders are currently balancing concerns over near-term supply constraints with apprehensions about a potential surplus in the longer term. Despite predictions from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that suggest a possible surplus later in the year, factors such as robust summer travel demand and heightened refinery activity are sustaining current price levels. Russia’s commitment to adjust for overproduction alongside forecasts of record Saudi crude oil exports to China in August are further fueling short-term optimism. However, the IEA's raised projections for supply growth, combined with reduced demand estimates, suggest a softer market balance later on. Additionally, OPEC expressed caution by lowering its global oil demand forecast for 2026–2029, attributing this to decelerated economic growth in China. Geopolitical risks remain a key concern, as markets anticipate possible new sanctions from the United States against Russia amid escalating tensions involving Ukraine.