FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Seen Rising for 2nd Month

The annual inflation rate in the United States is anticipated to have increased for the second consecutive month, reaching 2.7% in June 2025. This marks the highest rate since February and represents an uptick from the 2.4% recorded in May. On a month-to-month comparison, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 0.3%, which signifies the most significant rise in five months, up from a 0.1% increase in May. This rise is likely attributed to businesses beginning to transmit higher import costs to consumers due to recently imposed tariffs, notably impacting sectors such as furniture, toys, recreational goods, and automobiles. Additionally, there has been a recovery in gasoline prices. Core inflation—which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices—is expected to rise to 3% in June, following three consecutive months at 2.8%, which was the lowest annual rate since 2021. The monthly core CPI is also forecasted to rise by 0.3%, compared to a 0.1% increase in May, recording its sharpest increase in five months.