FX.co ★ Chile Slashes 2025 Copper Growth Forecast on Mine Disruptions

Chile's state copper commission, Cochilco, has revised its 2025 copper production growth forecast to 1.5%, down from an earlier estimate of 3%. This adjustment is attributed to a decline in production at BHP’s Escondida mine and the Collahuasi operation in June. Despite being the world’s leading copper exporter, Chile is still projected to produce 5.58 million metric tons of copper in the current year, with the average copper prices for 2025-2026 anticipated to remain at $4.30 per pound. Cochilco highlighted that the production drop in June marked a pivotal moment and cautioned that a fatal incident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could threaten a significant supply disruption. For 2026, the growth rate is maintained at 3%, but production estimates have been adjusted downwards to 5.75 million tons. On the global front, copper prices are likely to remain elevated due to constrained concentrate supply and robust demand, particularly from China and other developing economies. The demand for refined copper is expected to reach 27 million tons by 2026. China's consumption is forecasted to be 15.7 million tons in 2025, with India’s demand anticipated to grow by 7.5%, fueled by industrialization and the transition to alternative energy sources.