In a recent update dated August 15, 2025, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has maintained its forecast for the U.S. economic growth rate at a steady 2.5% for the third quarter of 2025. The model, which provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release, offers an indicator of how the economy is expected to perform over the remaining months of the quarter. This updated forecast comes amid growing anticipation of economic policies scheduled for later in the year.
The forecast of maintaining a 2.5% growth rate aligns with previous estimates from earlier in the quarter, suggesting a stable economic outlook for the United States. The consistency in the GDPNow model's estimate indicates that the anticipated changes in production and spending dynamics have yet to significantly tilt the economic balance in the country. Analysts closely watch these updates to gauge the health of the economy, particularly in the face of global economic uncertainties.
As the quarter progresses, market participants and policymakers will continuously monitor economic indicators and potential shifts that could influence the GDPNow forecast moving forward. The current stable outlook could play a significant role in shaping upcoming fiscal and monetary policy decisions as the U.S. continues to navigate through both domestic and international economic challenges.
