FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Steadies Ahead of More Jobs Data

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury hovered around 4.22% on Thursday, maintaining its level after easing the day before. Investors are keenly anticipating new labor market data to inform the outlook for interest rate shifts. Attention is particularly on the forthcoming ADP private payrolls report, which is anticipated to reflect a slowdown in hiring, alongside a potential increase in weekly jobless claims. The flagship data point, however, will be the August nonfarm payroll figures, set to be released on Friday, which will significantly influence near-term market trends. On Wednesday, the benchmark yield decreased by approximately 5 basis points following the JOLTS report indicating a reduction in job openings by 176,000, bringing the total to 7.18 million—the lowest since September 2024 and below the projected 7.4 million. Adding to the cautious sentiment, US factory orders witnessed a decline for the second consecutive month in July. Current market pricing suggests a nearly 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points later this month.