FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds at 4-Month Low

On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield lingered around 4.16%, maintaining its position at a four-month low as investors anticipated the August jobs report. This report is considered crucial for solidifying expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month. The most recent ADP survey revealed that private payrolls grew by only 54,000 in August, a significant decrease from July's revised figure of 106,000 and below the predicted 65,000. Additional data throughout the week further indicated weaknesses in the labor market. Job openings dipped to 7.18 million in July, marking the lowest since September 2024, while jobless claims reached a two-month peak. Consequently, traders have nearly fully factored in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17. Throughout the week, numerous Federal Reserve officials also highlighted labor market vulnerabilities, supporting the argument for immediate policy easing.