FX.co ★ Aluminum Rises to 1-Month High

In September, aluminum futures in the United States exceeded $2,640 per tonne, marking their highest level in over a month and surpassing the performance of other base metals this year due to potential supply disruptions. The imposition of a 50% tariff on aluminum imports by President Trump has led significant Canadian producers to redirect their metal away from the US market. In the second quarter, aluminum shipments to the US constituted 78% of total Canadian exports, a drop from 95% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, China's production is expected to decelerate as it approaches its annual output limit of 45 million tons, constraining supply growth from the world's leading producer. Additionally, Guinea Alumina suffered a loss of all mining licenses after the country's military-backed government reassigned all mining leases to a newly established state-run entity, possibly interrupting ore production critical to major producer Emirates Global Aluminum. During this period, speculative bullish positions and an accelerating demand for physical aluminum have driven down primary aluminum stocks in the London Metal Exchange by almost 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 within the first third of the month.