FX.co ★ IMF Estimates Mexico's GDP Growth to Slow to 1% in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a growth rate of 1.0% for Mexico's economy in 2025, a decrease from the anticipated 1.4% growth in 2024. In 2026, growth is expected to rise slightly to 1.5%. These projections fall short of the Mexican government's estimates, which range between 1.8% and 2.8% for the upcoming year. The budget deficit is anticipated to decrease marginally to 4.10%. The IMF emphasized the necessity of implementing fiscal and structural reforms to ensure sustained economic stability in the long run. Additionally, the agency highlighted that Mexico’s public gross debt-to-GDP ratio might escalate to 61.5% by 2030 if current policies remain unchanged. The country's economic prospects are currently hindered by trade disagreements, infrastructural deficiencies, and fiscal weaknesses. Despite these challenges, the IMF assessed that risks to Mexico's financial stability are minimal. An improvement in the economic outlook could occur if there is stronger-than-expected demand from the United States or a favorable outcome in the review of its trade agreement with the United States and Canada.