FX.co ★ New Zealand Business Mood Holds Near 5-Month High

The ANZ Business Outlook Index in New Zealand registered a value of 49.6 in September 2025, reflecting a marginal drop from August's five-month peak of 49.7, yet indicating persistent confidence in economic recovery fueled by reduced interest rates. Businesses noted an increase in expected activity, reaching a five-month high of 43.4 compared to 38.7 in August, while past activity also saw an upturn (4.5 versus 1.3). Export expectations remained stable (16.4 versus 16.6), but there was notable improvement in employment (16.4 compared to 10.5) and pricing intentions (45.9 compared to 42.5), along with a boost in profit expectations (20.2 versus 15.2). Despite this, cost pressures experienced a slight rise (75.1 versus 74.0), while the outlook for wage growth steadied at 2.4%. Though investment intentions saw a modest decline (17.5 versus 20.2), access to credit showed a slight enhancement (17.3 compared to 16.9). Inflation expectations remained within the recent range (2.71% versus 2.63%). Examining sectoral trends, residential construction outlook softened (23.3 compared to 26.8), whereas commercial construction intentions surged to their highest since April (31.7 compared to 25.0).