The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to 40.6 in September 2025, down from 41.5 the month before. This decline was more pronounced than market forecasts, which had anticipated an improvement to 43, marking the steepest contraction in activity over the past three months. This result signifies the 22nd straight month that the reading has fallen below the neutral threshold of 50, underscoring a sustained contractionary phase as highlighted in the survey.