FX.co ★ Dallas Fed Business Activity Returns to Contraction

In September 2025, the Dallas Fed's general business activity index saw a decline of 12 points from the previous month, reaching -5.6, its lowest point since May and signaling a renewed economic contraction. The revenue index, which reflects the conditions of the state service sector, decreased by 11 points, bringing it to -2.4. Additionally, the employment index dropped to -3.6, down from 1.2 in August. Business outlooks also turned more pessimistic; the company outlook index decreased by seven points to -2.6, while the outlook uncertainty index rose by 11 points to 22.5. Despite these declines, the indicator for capital expenditures showed an increase, rising from 5.8 to 7.3. Price pressures saw a modest easing, with the input prices index declining to 24.4 from 27.9, and the wages and benefits index dropping four points to 11.9. The selling prices index remained largely unchanged at 1.6. Looking to the future, the projections for general business activity and revenue were stable, with the future general business activity index and the future revenue index holding steady at 11.6 and 35.3, respectively.