In October 2025, Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index experienced a notable decline, decreasing by 3.9 points to reach 46.3. This drop in confidence affected most sectors, with construction leading the downturn, falling by 9.3 points to 43.2. Other sectors also saw decreases, including transportation (down 8.6 points to 42.4), retail (down 5.8 points to 42.6), and manufacturing (down 4.1 points to 44.6). Conversely, only the sectors of health and education (55.4), agriculture (54.5), and professional services (52.7) remained above the 50 mark, indicating a more positive outlook.
The ongoing trade dispute between the US and Canada continued to dampen sentiment, with 72% of businesses reporting adverse effects. Among these, the transportation sector was particularly affected (38%), followed by manufacturing (27%) and wholesale (26%). On a regional level, Alberta experienced the greatest decline, dropping by 9.9 points to 43.8.
Labor market conditions have weakened, with a larger proportion of employers planning to reduce staff (19%) compared to those intending to hire (12%). The primary obstacle to business and production growth remains insufficient demand, as noted by 52% of respondents. Additionally, significant cost challenges that are restraining growth include insurance costs (68%), tax and regulatory expenses (67%), and wage costs (64%).
