FX.co ★ Lumber Falls to 8-Week Lows

Lumber futures have declined to $530 per thousand board feet, marking their lowest point in eight weeks. This decrease is attributed to a plentiful supply coupled with reduced immediate consumption. In anticipation of potential tariff increases, dealers and traders had previously increased their purchases. However, they now find themselves with overstocked inventories. Demand has waned as the initiation of new single-family homes, builders' orders, and permit activities have all slowed. Additionally, high mortgage rates have dampened the immediate demand for home construction and renovations, leading to a decrease in mill purchasing. On the production side, North American sawmills have been reluctant to cut back output, resulting in production and shipment levels that outstrip current physical demand and contribute to high dealer inventories. Traders and distributors, who had earlier increased their stock amid tariff concerns, are now selling off these inventories amidst weak spot demand. This has intensified the downward pressure on prices and compelled sellers to offer discounts. Consequently, the speculative stockpiling prompted by tariff threats has resulted in an excess supply, which is now being adjusted in the market through price reductions.