FX.co ★ Treasury Yields March Higher

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.1% on Thursday. This movement is attributed to traders shifting their focus from the now mostly resolved government shutdown to a fresh set of delayed economic data and its possible impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While some of these reports may be released shortly, others might remain unpublished permanently. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, mentioned that specific data for October might "simply never show up" due to data collection disruptions during the shutdown. Initial indicators from the private sector suggest a weakening labor market and fragile consumer confidence, with persistent concerns about inflation. Concurrently, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting has decreased to approximately 54%, down from nearly 65% the previous day. Furthermore, the latest auction of the new 10-year note revealed a slight tail, indicating a modest decline in demand.