FX.co ★ Soybean Futures Hold Above $11

Soybean futures have stabilized above $11 per bushel, reaching levels not seen since July 2024, due to reduced production forecasts, although apprehensions about demand have capped potential price increases. On Friday, the USDA released a global supply and demand update, marking its first in several weeks. This report revised the world soybean production estimate for the 2025/26 marketing year downwards by 4.1 million tons, now totaling 421.75 million tons. The reduction includes a decrease of 1.3 million tons in the US output, bringing it to 115.75 million tons. Global ending stocks are anticipated to decline by 2 million tons to 121.99 million, with decreases noted in Argentina, Brazil, the US, the EU, Ukraine, and India, though these are somewhat balanced by increased reserves in China. Additionally, global soybean consumption has been revised to 421.54 million tons, a reduction of 2.35 million tons, primarily driven by a 1.7 million-ton decrease in Argentina. Meanwhile, concerns regarding China's acquisition of US soybeans persist; after a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, China's purchases amounted to only 332,000 metric tons, which is significantly below the initially promised 12 million tons for the year.