FX.co ★ US Job Growth Expected to Slow in December

The December 2025 report on US nonfarm payrolls anticipates an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, marking a slight decrease compared to the 64,000 jobs added in November. This report is set to be the first largely unaffected by the disruptions caused by the government shutdown in the fall. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease slightly to 4.5%, down from November's four-year peak of 4.6%. It is projected that average hourly earnings will see a monthly growth of 0.3%, accelerating from the previous month's 0.1% increase, with annual wage growth predicted to rise marginally to 3.6% from 3.5%. The data will likely reveal that the labor market is expanding modestly, as employers exercise caution due to uncertainties around tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and the increasing influence of artificial intelligence. Some economists suggest that even recent moderate job growth figures may be inflated, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the economy might have been shedding approximately 20,000 jobs each month since April.