FX.co ★ Nickel Futures Hold Near Peaks

Nickel futures are maintaining a level around $18,300 per tonne, hovering close to recent highs after reaching a peak of over 19 months at approximately $18,700 on January 14. This is largely due to ongoing concerns about limited supply from Indonesia. Traders are paying close attention to Indonesia's forecasted ore quotas for 2026, projected to be between 250-260 million tonnes, which falls significantly short of the domestic smelter demand and last year's target of 379 million tonnes. Adding to the market uncertainty, approvals for miners' annual production plans (RKABs) have yet to be finalized. The restricted availability of ore may hinder refined nickel output, thereby supporting prices despite recent reductions. Moreover, investor interest in tangible assets is bolstered by increased demand from Chinese stainless steel manufacturers and electric vehicle battery producers, sustaining the strong nickel prices. At the same time, efforts to diversify supply are coming into sharper focus. Notably, Canada Nickel's Crawford Project in Ontario has been accelerated under the One Project, One Process framework, aiming for initial production by late 2028. This development suggests a potential long-term alternative to Indonesian nickel production.