The US economy likely added 70,000 jobs in January 2026, a modest increase from December’s 50,000, underscoring a cooling labour market and suggesting a more firmly entrenched slowdown. The delayed report is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month, the same pace as in December. However, annual wage growth is projected to ease to 3.6% from 3.8%.
Beyond the headline payroll and unemployment figures, the January report will incorporate the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual benchmark revisions and updated seasonal adjustment factors. These changes are anticipated to substantially lower the estimated pace of hiring for 2025, following a preliminary assessment that pointed to a record downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the year through March 2025.
