The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now estimates that U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a prior reading of 3.6%. Both the earlier and the latest estimates refer to the same period, with the updated figure released on 19 February 2026.
The reduction in the nowcast suggests that the underlying pace of U.S. economic expansion in late 2025 may have been slightly weaker than initially anticipated, even as growth remained solidly positive. Investors and policymakers closely track the GDPNow model as a high-frequency gauge of momentum ahead of official government data releases, making this revision a notable signal on the strength of U.S. activity heading into 2026.
