Heating oil futures advanced above $3.65 per gallon as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and President Trump’s demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender created the most acute supply risk since 2022. WTI crude jumped more than 14%, topping $92 per barrel, after Qatar warned that Gulf energy exporters could halt production if tankers continue to be blocked from the Strait of Hormuz.
While the US administration weighs responses such as tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and granting temporary waivers for Russian crude shipments, markets remain fixated on the structural vulnerabilities of global energy trade. Supply anxieties are further heightened by Saudi Arabia diverting exports through Red Sea ports as Iran persists in targeting regional energy infrastructure.
Even though recent EIA data indicated a modest build in distillate inventories, traders are assigning a substantial risk premium to prices, reflecting the possibility of a full shutdown of a corridor that moves roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum products per day.
