FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Continues to Rise

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note inched up to 4.15% on Monday, its highest level in about a month, after briefly touching 4.21% during the session, as traders continued to track developments in the war with Iran. The conflict shows little sign of abating, pushing energy markets higher again and driving oil prices above $100 a barrel after major Middle Eastern producers — Kuwait, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — cut output, heightening worries about renewed inflationary pressures. In response, traders now anticipate just one 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, most likely in September, down from expectations of two cuts only a week earlier. Investors are also bracing for a packed data calendar, including the CPI report, the PCE price index, and JOLTS job openings, which should offer additional clarity on the underlying strength of the US economy.