Rice futures climbed above $11 per hundredweight in March, the highest level in roughly a month, following broader gains across grain markets amid the ongoing war involving Iran. The conflict has driven up insurance premiums, container freight rates, and fuel costs, while also disrupting key shipping routes.
On the supply side, the FAO, in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, raised its 2025/26 global rice production forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis). This represents a 2.1% year-on-year increase and marks a new record high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are expected to underpin this season’s production growth, more than offsetting anticipated declines in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States.
Indonesia’s production estimate was revised higher after final government assessments showed that a substantial expansion in harvested area pushed output to a decade high. Production estimates for Thailand were also adjusted upwards.
