The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.70 on Tuesday, surrendering part of the previous session’s gains as it came under pressure from falling oil prices. As a commodity-linked currency, the Aussie weakened alongside the decline in crude, despite an improvement in broader market sentiment after US President Trump characterized the conflict involving Iran as “very complete,” noting that Washington was “very far ahead” of his original four- to five-week timeframe. Trump also said he expects oil prices to retreat, after crude recently climbed above $100 per barrel.
On the domestic front, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.2% month-on-month to 91.6 in March, its first increase since November. In contrast, the NAB Business Confidence Index fell to -1 from 4, its first negative reading since April 2025. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to announce its policy decision next week. Money market pricing now points to two rate hikes by August and a strong likelihood of three increases by year-end, implying a terminal rate of 4.5%.
