The dollar index held above the 100 mark on Friday, its highest level since late November 2025, and was headed for a second straight weekly gain as investors continued to favor the greenback as a safe-haven asset amid the escalating conflict with Iran and dim prospects for a near-term resolution. Confidence in the US was further underpinned by its relatively greater energy independence compared with other major economies.
At the same time, markets digested a new set of key economic indicators, including the PCE report, which showed the annual PCE inflation rate easing to 2.8%. In contrast, fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply lower to 0.7%, half of the initial 1.4% estimate. These data reinforced expectations for a single Federal Reserve rate cut this year, likely in September.
The Fed meets next week to set monetary policy. While no change to the federal funds rate is anticipated, investors will scrutinize the statement and projections for signals on policymakers’ outlook for the rest of the year.
