The National Bank of Moldova left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5% at its March 2026 meeting, after cutting it by 100 basis points in December. The decision was taken against a backdrop of heightened international uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East, with surging global energy prices weighing on both global growth prospects and inflation dynamics.
Moldova’s annual inflation picked up to 5.1% in February 2026, from a one-and-a-half-year low of 4.9% in January. The NBM stressed that its earlier monetary policy measures, together with their lagged effects, continue to support the objective of maintaining inflation within a band of ±1.5 percentage points around its 5% target.
On the real economy side, preliminary data indicated that GDP grew by 3.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a downwardly revised 5.1% expansion in the third quarter. The central bank reiterated that it remains closely monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, including the escalating conflict in the Middle East, and signaled its readiness to tighten monetary policy should persistently elevated energy, food, or raw material prices pose a threat to price stability.
