FX.co ★ 10-Year Treasury Yield at 8-Month High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.46% on Friday, its highest level since July 2025, putting it on track to finish the week about 8 bps higher. Markets remain focused on the economic fallout from the war with Iran, with investors increasingly worried about both inflation and growth as the outlook for de-escalation remains unclear and oil prices continue to surge. Crude is now trading near its 2022 highs, and traders are bracing for the conflict to drag into April as attacks persist across the Middle East. This is occurring despite US President Trump’s announcement of a 10-day halt, through April 6, on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, intended to create space for negotiations. Some investors, however, worry that this pause could also give the US time to reinforce its military presence in the region. At the same time, traders have pared back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as the central bank continues to project a single 25 bps cut in 2026.