FX.co ★ US 10Y Yield Holds Near 8-Month High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slipped to around 4.4% on Monday, though it remained close to its highest levels since July 2025, as investors assessed the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and its implications for inflation, growth, and interest rates. Tensions escalated after Trump stated he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island, drawing parallels to the US military operation in Venezuela earlier this year. The US is also reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran following the deployment of additional troops to the region. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen entered the conflict after targeting Israel over the weekend. The sharp rise in oil prices linked to the Iran war reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with markets now pricing in the possibility of a rate hike later this year. Investors are turning their attention to key US labor market data due this week, including the JOLTS and ADP private payrolls reports, while the March employment report is still scheduled for release on Friday despite the holiday.