The dollar index climbed toward 100.5 on Monday, advancing for a fifth straight session and returning to levels last seen in May 2025, as the conflict with Iran entered its fifth week with no signs of easing. Investors remained focused on the implications for economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy.
Oil prices continued to rise, reaching new highs not seen since 2022. This reinforced expectations that higher energy costs could weigh on economic activity and constrain the Federal Reserve’s room to raise interest rates. Consequently, the implied probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 has slipped to about 20%, down from roughly 35% at the end of last week.
Market attention is also shifting to a crowded economic calendar, with key data releases including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the monthly jobs report, both of which are expected to offer further insight into the underlying strength of the US economy. The greenback traded mostly higher against the pound, yen, and euro.
