FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Little Changed

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.31% at the start of April, after climbing nearly 37 bps in March, as traders weighed tentative signs that the war with Iran may be nearing an end. President Trump said he expected the conflict to conclude within two to three weeks, later adding that Iran had requested a ceasefire and that the US would consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is open, secure, and fully operational. These developments have helped pull oil prices back from recent highs. However, uncertainty persists, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed and attacks continuing across the Gulf. On the data front, the latest ADP report showed the private sector added 62K jobs in March, surpassing expectations of 40K, while retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.6% in February—both signs that the US economy remains resilient. Traders largely expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged this year, although the perceived likelihood of a rate cut has increased.