The Brazilian real rebounded toward 5.15 per US dollar, approaching its strongest levels since May 2024, last seen in February, as growing optimism over a possible ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a global pullback in the greenback. After coming under pressure in March amid intense risk aversion, the real started the second quarter on firmer ground, supported by signs that the conflict with Iran may be nearing an end.
Comments from President Donald Trump that the US military campaign could conclude within weeks weighed on the dollar index and softened safe-haven demand. These international dynamics overshadowed domestic concerns that emerged after mid-month IPCA-15 data showed a 0.44% increase in March, beating forecasts and reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive policy stance.
Although the 12-month inflation rate eased to 3.90%, it remains above the 3.0% target, providing a hawkish backdrop that continues to lend support to the local currency.
