FX.co ★ China Q1 GDP Growth Above Expectations

China’s economy grew 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, up from 4.5% in Q4 and above market expectations of 4.8%. This was the fastest annual pace in three quarters, even as policymakers prepared for possible economic repercussions from the war in Iran. Beneath the strong headline figure, however, momentum remained uneven. March industrial output came in below forecasts, and retail sales also underperformed, indicating that consumer demand is still fragile. The surveyed unemployment rate rose to a 13-month high, highlighting persistent labor market strains. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment in the first quarter increased by less than expected, signaling ongoing business caution despite solid overall growth. In external trade, export growth slowed sharply in March, while imports recorded a strong surge.