Cocoa futures climbed toward $3,400 per tonne but remained near their lowest levels since August 2023, as traders continued to balance evidence of weakening global demand against the outlook for ample supply. Recent industry data showed cocoa grindings in Europe, the world’s largest consuming region, declined by almost 8%, while North American grindings fell nearly 4%, with both drops exceeding market expectations. At the retail level, Bloomberg Intelligence reported that chocolate candy sales during the Easter holiday — typically a peak period for consumption — declined by about 5% year-on-year.
On the supply side, sufficient rainfall across key cocoa-growing regions in West Africa has strengthened expectations of another global surplus in the 2026/27 season. The latest figures also indicated that ICE-monitored certified inventories at U.S. ports decreased by 5,511 bags to 2,618,981 bags. Despite the reduction, stock levels remain elevated by historical standards, underscoring generally comfortable supply conditions. Even so, renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have raised fresh concerns about logistics bottlenecks and higher transportation costs.
