FX.co ★ Eurozone Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Geopolitical Risks

Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months surged to 4.0% in March 2026, the highest level since October 2023 and a sharp increase from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly rise since early 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine first upended energy markets. The escalating conflict involving Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have further stoked concerns about a spike in energy prices and broader inflationary pressures. Longer-term expectations also moved higher: three-year inflation forecasts rose to 3.0% in March from 2.5% in February, while five-year expectations inched up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Uncertainty about short-term inflation increased, but the upward shift in expectations was broadly shared across income groups. Lower-income respondents reported slightly higher near-term expectations, whereas younger respondents (18–34) continued to project lower inflation than older age groups.