Rice futures fell below $11 per hundredweight, hovering near two-week lows, pressured by expectations of abundant global supply. The International Grains Council (IGC) projects 2026-27 global rice production at a record 548 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season, driven by strong harvests in India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines. In Indonesia, rice reserves reached an unprecedented 5,000,198 tons as of April 23, 2026, marking a historic high for the country.
Nonetheless, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. Major Southeast Asian producers are contending with higher fuel, freight, and fertilizer costs amid disruptions to key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, linked to conflict in the Middle East. In Thailand, the world’s leading rice exporter, many farmers are reportedly reducing or suspending rice planting as rising input costs erode profit margins. The region is currently harvesting its off-season crop, ahead of the main planting season that begins in May.
