Wheat futures climbed to $6.33 per bushel, an eleven-month high, as severe drought across the US Great Plains threatens supplies. Roughly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma are affected, with more than half of Nebraska classified in extreme drought. This is straining winter wheat crops and forcing livestock producers to reduce herd sizes and depend on more expensive feed.
Dry conditions are expected to persist, and rainfall forecasts are being closely monitored for potential relief during the critical spring growing period. At the same time, the USDA left its winter wheat condition rating unchanged at 30% good to excellent—below market expectations and the weakest rating for this time of year since 2023. Conditions in Kansas, a key producing state, also deteriorated slightly.
Overall, about 70% of the winter wheat crop lies in areas experiencing drought, while spring wheat planting is running behind the seasonal average due to limited workable field days. On the demand side, Saudi Arabia supported the market by purchasing nearly one million tons of wheat in a recent tender.
