Lumber futures have been trading in a narrow band between $575 and $585 per thousand board feet, as broad market uncertainty and persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. The United States recently announced preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber, cutting the antidumping rate from 20.6% to 10.7% and trimming the countervailing duty from 14.6% to 14.2%. This brings the combined rate to roughly 25.9%. When the existing 10% Section 232 tariff is included, total effective duties on Canadian imports are expected to remain close to 35.9% once the measures take effect in August.
Although these policies are intended to support domestic producers, US sawmill utilization remains subdued at around 64%, with capacity use trending lower since 2017, indicating a limited supply response. At the same time, elevated construction costs and high interest rates continue to weigh on housing activity, with US homebuilder confidence falling to its lowest level since September 2025.
