The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers now anticipate inflation of 2.53% over the next two years as of Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous survey and marking the highest level since Q4 2023. One-year inflation expectations also rose sharply, climbing to 3.41%—the highest in more than two years—from 2.59% in Q1.
By contrast, longer-term expectations softened. Five-year inflation forecasts eased to 2.22% from 2.31%, while ten-year expectations declined to 2.19% from 2.30%.
On the monetary policy front, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to increase to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to rise further to 3.01% over the next year. These revised expectations come ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision scheduled for May 2026.
