FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Rise Further After Strong ADP Report

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.49% on Wednesday after the ADP report showed the private sector added 122K jobs in May, beating forecasts and reaching its highest level since January 2025. The figures signaled a labor market that is still strengthening, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year. Earlier in the week, JOLTS data indicated that job openings in April climbed to their highest level since November 2024, underscoring the continued resilience of labor demand. Treasury prices also came under pressure from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices higher for a third straight session and reignited inflation concerns. Markets now assign an 85% probability to a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 60% just a week ago.