FX.co ★ US PPI Seen Cooling Monthly, Heating Up Annually

US producer prices are expected to rise 0.7% month-over-month in May 2026, following a sharp 1.4% increase in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Energy costs—particularly gasoline and jet fuel—are likely to remain a key driver of inflation, as the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to disrupt oil supplies and push crude prices significantly higher. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy categories, are forecast to increase 0.5% in May, easing from the 1% gain recorded in April. On a year-over-year basis, however, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 6.4% in May, up from 6% in April and marking the highest level since December 2022. Annual core producer inflation is also expected to edge higher, rising to 5.4% from 5.2%, likewise matching its highest reading since December 2022.