FX.co ★ Rice Futures Up to Over 1-Week High

Rice futures climbed above $12.20 per hundredweight, the highest level in more than a week, driven by climate risks and ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, despite ample global supply and relatively soft demand. Major producers in Southeast Asia are preparing for an intense El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions and could negatively impact rice output. The Philippines recently warned that paddy rice production could fall by as much as 700,000 tons, or about 3.5% of its annual target. At the same time, farmers continue to struggle with elevated input costs as fuel and fertilizer supplies remain disrupted amid restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Rice exports from Thailand fell 10.75% in the January–May period compared with the same months a year earlier. Meanwhile, recent data showed that India’s rice inventories held in government warehouses surged to a record 68.43 million metric tons as of June 1, up 15% year-on-year and more than five times the official buffer norm of 13.5 million tons for July 1.