In June 2026, US median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023. Three-year-ahead expectations also increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, marking their highest reading since June 2022, while five-year-ahead expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.
Expectations for gas price growth declined sharply, falling by 3.5 percentage points to 1.5%, the lowest level since August 2022.
The survey also pointed to improving perceptions of job security. The average reported probability of losing one’s job over the next 12 months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.1%, while the perceived likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 percentage points to 44.9%.
Households indicated that their current financial situation has improved compared with a year earlier. However, expectations for future credit conditions deteriorated slightly, with a growing share of respondents anticipating tighter credit availability ahead.
