Rice prices have eased to around $13.70 per hundredweight, pulling back from the 18‑month high of $14.30 reached on July 22, as traders reassess the balance between weather-related risks and ample global supplies. Earlier gains were fueled by concerns that El Niño and below-average monsoon rainfall could curb output in major Asian producers, notably India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. While these risks persist, conditions in India have improved: the revival of monsoon rains has accelerated rice planting and sharply reduced the earlier shortfall in sown area.
At the same time, India’s rice exports rose 5% in the first half of 2026, supported by strong non-basmati shipments and plentiful domestic supplies, helping to keep the global market well supplied. Even so, prices remain relatively high, as weather uncertainty has not fully abated. Prolonged dry spells could still weigh on yields later in the season, and the USDA continues to project tighter US rice supplies and lower ending stocks.
