The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model sharply upgraded its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2026, with the forecast rising to 6.2% from a previous reading of 5.0%. Both figures relate to the third quarter of 2026, with the latest update released on 3 August 2026.
The move signals a notable acceleration in the Atlanta Fed’s real-time tracking of annualized real GDP growth, suggesting stronger-than-previously-expected momentum in U.S. economic activity. While GDPNow is not an official government statistic, markets and analysts closely follow the model as a high-frequency indicator of the growth trajectory ahead of the Commerce Department’s formal GDP releases.
The 1.2 percentage point jump in the projection within the same quarter underscores how incoming data have been skewing to the upside, prompting a recalibration of growth expectations for the U.S. economy as the third quarter progresses.
