FX.co ★ Dollar Edges Lower as Fed Hike Bets Recede

The dollar index fell to around 99.5 on Monday, marking a third consecutive decline as softer US economic data led traders to trim expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Recent releases showed subdued inflation alongside weaker consumer sentiment and retail sales. Markets now assign roughly a 67% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September, up from less than 50% about a month ago. Investors are looking ahead to the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium for additional policy signals. Traders will also be watching the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index, both due later today. The dollar weakened broadly, with its sharpest losses against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the British pound.