FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Rise as Warsh Warns on Inflation

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.7% after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation has not slowed in a meaningful way, suggesting policymakers may still have “work to do” to return price growth to the Fed’s 2% target. In his first major speech since becoming chair in May, Warsh reaffirmed that 2% inflation is a firm and non-negotiable goal and noted that current financial conditions are not restrictive. He also underscored that interest rates remain the Fed’s primary tool for meeting its mandate. Warsh added that while recent PCE and CPI readings came in better than expected, they do not yet point to a sustained improvement in underlying inflation trends. His closely watched comments offered greater clarity on his economic and policy stance following criticism that his relatively sparse communication had left investors with limited guidance on the near-term outlook. After the speech, money markets priced in nearly a 50% probability of a rate increase in September, according to CME FedWatch.