Corn futures hovered around $5.30 per bushel, holding near their highest level since mid‑2023 as ongoing supply risks in the Black Sea region underpinned the market and traders digested the USDA’s latest supply-and-demand outlook.
In its September report, the USDA lowered its 2026/27 US corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7, cut projected production to 15.8 billion bushels from 16.013 billion, and reduced estimated ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion. These downward revisions reflect expectations for a smaller US harvest after a hot summer and mounting concerns over crop conditions.
At the same time, persistent Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics continue to threaten grain shipments, pushing Ukraine to divert a larger share of its exports through the Danube. This disruption is creating opportunities for alternative suppliers: Argentina is capturing additional demand, with its corn exports projected to reach a record 10 million metric tons over August–September, partially offsetting the shortfall in Ukrainian supply.
