The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 9% in September 2026, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2023 amid heightened economic uncertainty and persistent volatility in energy markets. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.96% in August, hovering near the upper bound of the central bank’s 5 ± 1.5% target range, as higher international oil prices continued to fuel inflationary pressures. Nonetheless, inflation came in below earlier projections, largely because adjustments to natural gas tariffs were postponed.
Economic activity strengthened in the second quarter, with GDP expanding by 0.9%, driven primarily by industry, agriculture, financial and insurance services, and trade. Looking ahead, inflation is projected to continue rising at a relatively rapid pace through the end of 2026. The trajectory of prices will largely depend on developments in energy and food costs, conditions for external financing, the scale of fiscal stimulus, and the rollout of the new fiscal policy framework for 2027. Beyond 2026, policymakers anticipate a gradual return to disinflation.
